Apple departed a little bit from their usual playbook today - they announced new systems today instead of waiting until Tuesday (the "traditional" announcement date).
Today's updates, as expected, were to the entire PowerBook line. Apple has now bumped up the top speed to 1.67 GHz (from 1.5), which is available on the 15" and 17" models. They also bumped up the 12" PowerBook to 1.5 GHz (from 1.33). A low-end 15" is also available in the 1.5 GHz speed.
Besides the speed bumps, the new line also gets the following other improvements: Upgraded graphics subsystems (nVidia GeForce FX Go5200 on the 12", ATi Radeon Mobility 9700 on the 15" and 17"), with the ability to drive the 30" display, Bluetooth 2.0 (faster), improved keyboard lighting, an 8x SuperDrive, bigger hard drives (up to 100 GB), scrolling support added to the trackpad, and a new system to help protect data if the PowerBook takes a header. The 17" PowerBook also gets S/PDIF support. The 12" and 15" PowerBooks now ship standard with 512MB - that was standard on the 15" before, but now it is a single DIMM. So you can easily upgrade to 768MB or 1 GB - since you now get an open slot when you buy it (to upgrade my older one to 1 GB I had to ditch both the built-in 256MB DIMMs).
Oh yeah - they also lowered prices at the same time. Every model except the 15" Combo drive version got a price cut of at least $100. The top-of-the-line 17" is now $2700 - a $300 cut.
This upgrade was no surprise (the rumor sheets had it pegged a month ago), but a necessary holding action until Apple can ship a PowerBook based on either the multi-core G4 that Freescale just came out with or a G5 chip. I figure these will take the edge off upgrade demands for a little while at least.
If I were in the market for a PowerBook today, I'd buy now. I think it'll be at least 6 months before anything else comes to market. Expect a minor eMac update soon - possibly a low-end G5 version. Other than that, Apple will probably stand pat on hardware until WWDC at mid-year.
Monday, January 31, 2005
Saturday, January 29, 2005
Saying it better
Mortimer Zuckerman (the publisher of U.S. News and World Report) summarizes why Bush is a dangerous fool when it comes to Social Security far better than I can in this editorial from the current issue of his magazine. The magazine (and Zuckerman) are usually a little far right for my taste, but he really nails it in this issue.
When a right-center magazine is bashing Bush, there just may be some substance to it.
When a right-center magazine is bashing Bush, there just may be some substance to it.
Thursday, January 27, 2005
The problem with Social Security
In a nutshell - there is no problem with it for the most part - the demographic trends that are being used by the Bush administration to push their goal of privatization are, in effect, a series of worst-case scenarios that assume several things continue or worsen for the next 40+ years:
- The population will continue to skew older
- Life expectancies will climb rapidly
- There are no other population bulges coming down the pike
- Baby boomers will live a long, long time.
I suspect most of those tendencies will not be as bad as assumed by the SSA, but it's their job to assume the worst. That's what actuaries do.
See, here's the reality behind it, and why some folks (mainly the ones who think FDR was a pinko) want desperately to see the existing Social Security system blown up: Social Security was designed to provide a modest guaranteed income to retirees and the disabled, and is mainly funded by the ongoing revenues paid into it. That money is then used to buy government bonds, in turn providing a small, guaranteed rate of return. Back in the 1980s, SSA actuaries saw the baby boomers coming of age, and realized that they would be retiring eventually and would be making huge demands on the system - demands that could not be met as things stood.
So congress and Reagan actually agreed on something: they raised the Social Security tax. By doing this, they began building up a cushion (the "trust fund") that would build and eventually be drawn down as the boomers retired. As things stand right now, that cushion will stop growing in about 15 years, and depending on whether you believe the SSA or the CBO, sometime between 2045 and 2052 the reserve will be exhausted, so to keep things as they are either benefits would have to be cut or the payroll tax that funds Social Security would have to be increased.
Part of the catch here is that the SSA buys Treasury bonds, which basically fund our deficit spending. As they come due, it effectively increases the total debt, but moves it into a different ledger. The Bush administration would love to write that off, and make the deficits look smaller as a result. So they'd like to "privatize" Social Security - having participants assign a certain amount of their money to play the market. Their ultimate goal is to eliminate Social Security entirely, and shift all the money into private accounts. The problem here is that taking that money out of the pool to go to stocks does a couple of things. First, it reduces the pool - and that actually moves up the date of reckoning. Second, it adds an extra dose of risk to the retirement process - that sum that Grandma is counting on? It may not be there for her. Stocks are inherently risky, though they do have a good history. Of course, stocks are much more expensive as a multiple of earnings than they once were, and our economy is in peril of losing it's place as the "standard" of the world economic system, but why spoil the party?
Choice is good, but that's why we have other retirement vehicles available to us as individuals. All privatizing Social Security does is increase the risk associated with that basic pension, and gives a bunch of money to the people on Wall Street who are safe Republican votes anyway (do you thing that they'll handle your Social Security account for free, out of the goodness of their little hearts?) Wrong.
Now are there things we can do to increase the rate of return on Social Security? Absolutely. With minimal risk, we could allow the SSA to invest in vehicles other than Treasuries (but very low-risk), or we could raise the exemption (right now, I believe the line is around $95,000 - any income over that does not get taxes for Social Security purposes), or we could means-test the recipients (perhaps if you make over, say, $200k per year you get a reduced benefit). Or some combination of all those. The important point is that Social Security is not so broken that the fix is difficult. But George Bush would like you to think otherwise.
Remember, Social Security was not designed to be yet another investment vehicle for you, the eventual retiree. It was designed to be a simple, "pay as you go" system that would ultimately pay you a modest stipend upon retirement in exchange for your paying for the retirees before you. It's worked fairly well for two full generations, and with minor tweaking will work for many more to come.
If I were designing my own retirement system, would I set up the SSA? No - it's not bad, but it could be better. And as structured, the SSA payroll tax is pretty regressive. But it's worked well so far, despite the flaws. As for privatization? Look up what's happened in Chile and in Britain - two countries that have tried privatization to any degree. And then tell me you still favor it.
- The population will continue to skew older
- Life expectancies will climb rapidly
- There are no other population bulges coming down the pike
- Baby boomers will live a long, long time.
I suspect most of those tendencies will not be as bad as assumed by the SSA, but it's their job to assume the worst. That's what actuaries do.
See, here's the reality behind it, and why some folks (mainly the ones who think FDR was a pinko) want desperately to see the existing Social Security system blown up: Social Security was designed to provide a modest guaranteed income to retirees and the disabled, and is mainly funded by the ongoing revenues paid into it. That money is then used to buy government bonds, in turn providing a small, guaranteed rate of return. Back in the 1980s, SSA actuaries saw the baby boomers coming of age, and realized that they would be retiring eventually and would be making huge demands on the system - demands that could not be met as things stood.
So congress and Reagan actually agreed on something: they raised the Social Security tax. By doing this, they began building up a cushion (the "trust fund") that would build and eventually be drawn down as the boomers retired. As things stand right now, that cushion will stop growing in about 15 years, and depending on whether you believe the SSA or the CBO, sometime between 2045 and 2052 the reserve will be exhausted, so to keep things as they are either benefits would have to be cut or the payroll tax that funds Social Security would have to be increased.
Part of the catch here is that the SSA buys Treasury bonds, which basically fund our deficit spending. As they come due, it effectively increases the total debt, but moves it into a different ledger. The Bush administration would love to write that off, and make the deficits look smaller as a result. So they'd like to "privatize" Social Security - having participants assign a certain amount of their money to play the market. Their ultimate goal is to eliminate Social Security entirely, and shift all the money into private accounts. The problem here is that taking that money out of the pool to go to stocks does a couple of things. First, it reduces the pool - and that actually moves up the date of reckoning. Second, it adds an extra dose of risk to the retirement process - that sum that Grandma is counting on? It may not be there for her. Stocks are inherently risky, though they do have a good history. Of course, stocks are much more expensive as a multiple of earnings than they once were, and our economy is in peril of losing it's place as the "standard" of the world economic system, but why spoil the party?
Choice is good, but that's why we have other retirement vehicles available to us as individuals. All privatizing Social Security does is increase the risk associated with that basic pension, and gives a bunch of money to the people on Wall Street who are safe Republican votes anyway (do you thing that they'll handle your Social Security account for free, out of the goodness of their little hearts?) Wrong.
Now are there things we can do to increase the rate of return on Social Security? Absolutely. With minimal risk, we could allow the SSA to invest in vehicles other than Treasuries (but very low-risk), or we could raise the exemption (right now, I believe the line is around $95,000 - any income over that does not get taxes for Social Security purposes), or we could means-test the recipients (perhaps if you make over, say, $200k per year you get a reduced benefit). Or some combination of all those. The important point is that Social Security is not so broken that the fix is difficult. But George Bush would like you to think otherwise.
Remember, Social Security was not designed to be yet another investment vehicle for you, the eventual retiree. It was designed to be a simple, "pay as you go" system that would ultimately pay you a modest stipend upon retirement in exchange for your paying for the retirees before you. It's worked fairly well for two full generations, and with minor tweaking will work for many more to come.
If I were designing my own retirement system, would I set up the SSA? No - it's not bad, but it could be better. And as structured, the SSA payroll tax is pretty regressive. But it's worked well so far, despite the flaws. As for privatization? Look up what's happened in Chile and in Britain - two countries that have tried privatization to any degree. And then tell me you still favor it.
Word to prospective Mac mini buyers
Feel free to install your own memory after the fact - or pay me to do it for you. Based on what I know, I can do it in about 15 minutes or so, tops.
Meanwhile, you can get a 1 GB upgrade from Crucial for about $230 with free shipping. Even with what I'd charge you to install it, you're still coming out ahead.
However, if 512MB is enough for you, have Apple do it BTO with the system. Apple charges $75 to provide you with 512MB as a BTO option - that memory module costs about $80 here in the outside world, plus I'd change to install it. So for 512MB, Apple gives you the best deal.
And whatever you do, DO NOT buy the mini with just the standard 256MB. MacOS X is a dog with 256MB RAM, but flies with 512. And I have 1GB in my PowerBook - which really makes a huge impact. Remember, MacOS X is Unix, and Unix will do nice things for you when given memory to play with.
Apple shouldn't sell anything with less than 512MB if they care about making good first impressions.
Meanwhile, you can get a 1 GB upgrade from Crucial for about $230 with free shipping. Even with what I'd charge you to install it, you're still coming out ahead.
However, if 512MB is enough for you, have Apple do it BTO with the system. Apple charges $75 to provide you with 512MB as a BTO option - that memory module costs about $80 here in the outside world, plus I'd change to install it. So for 512MB, Apple gives you the best deal.
And whatever you do, DO NOT buy the mini with just the standard 256MB. MacOS X is a dog with 256MB RAM, but flies with 512. And I have 1GB in my PowerBook - which really makes a huge impact. Remember, MacOS X is Unix, and Unix will do nice things for you when given memory to play with.
Apple shouldn't sell anything with less than 512MB if they care about making good first impressions.
Wednesday, January 26, 2005
New England Life
Not the company, the life itself. It snowed again today. About 6 inches or so. As a result, the daycare center closed early, and my bowling league was cancelled for the night. Also, a Chamber of Commerce breakfast I was going to attend tomorrow morning has also been canned.
Buncha wusses.
After doing a little work, I blew out of the office at 12:30 and kidnapped my son just before naptime. So I brought him home for his nap, and then after he woke up we played for hours. That was a nice way to pass an afternoon. Otherwise, I only ventured outside once - when Jane came home from a training event she was running and apparently nearly burned out her transmission working to get into the driveway. She blew the horn a few times (which I heard), but I had no idea why a horn was blasting outside. Finally, she did the smart thing and called me to say she was stuck.
However, by the time I got my boots on and went out to help, she'd guided the car in by force of will. So I settled for clearing some of the snow with my Toro anyway. It'll make tomorrow easier and reduce our bill from Snowblower Guy, since he'll have less to do. So that's good.
Jane's off tomorrow, so she's going to do some errands early by herself and then snag David around mid-day for some quality time together. Thanks to the weather, my week got pretty boring pretty fast, so I'm doing some of the tech stuff in the office that I've been putting off for lack of time. It doesn't pay the bills, but it helps me learn the tings that do pay the bills. A wash, all in all.
Buncha wusses.
After doing a little work, I blew out of the office at 12:30 and kidnapped my son just before naptime. So I brought him home for his nap, and then after he woke up we played for hours. That was a nice way to pass an afternoon. Otherwise, I only ventured outside once - when Jane came home from a training event she was running and apparently nearly burned out her transmission working to get into the driveway. She blew the horn a few times (which I heard), but I had no idea why a horn was blasting outside. Finally, she did the smart thing and called me to say she was stuck.
However, by the time I got my boots on and went out to help, she'd guided the car in by force of will. So I settled for clearing some of the snow with my Toro anyway. It'll make tomorrow easier and reduce our bill from Snowblower Guy, since he'll have less to do. So that's good.
Jane's off tomorrow, so she's going to do some errands early by herself and then snag David around mid-day for some quality time together. Thanks to the weather, my week got pretty boring pretty fast, so I'm doing some of the tech stuff in the office that I've been putting off for lack of time. It doesn't pay the bills, but it helps me learn the tings that do pay the bills. A wash, all in all.
Monday, January 24, 2005
One more football note
So we're watching the game last night, with both David and I in our Pats jerseys (I've got a #4, he has a #28), and Jane in the next room. It's the second quarter, and the Steelers are driving. It looks like it may become a game - they're looking real sharp all of a sudden.
Next thing you know, Roethlisberger drops back to pass, dances around for a minute, then tosses the ball to the tight end split out to the right side...
But here's Rodney Harrison reading it perfectly - he steps inside the tight end, and BANG! he's got nothing in front of him but an embarrassed QB, who gets levelled by Vrabel on the return - TOUCHDOWN!
And as Harrison's making the return, I jump up and yell "TO THE HOUSE, BABY!"
Immediately echoed by a toddler doing the exact same thing, war cry and all. I was proud to be his dad.
Oh, and today I came to the office (I'm just about to leave). As I walked in thought the front entrance, I saw the buggies from the day-care center come around that they use to take the toddlers for rides. With David's class in the seats. I was recognized, and greeted with a "Hi, David's daddy!" from several of the kids. It was a Very Cool Moment.
Next thing you know, Roethlisberger drops back to pass, dances around for a minute, then tosses the ball to the tight end split out to the right side...
But here's Rodney Harrison reading it perfectly - he steps inside the tight end, and BANG! he's got nothing in front of him but an embarrassed QB, who gets levelled by Vrabel on the return - TOUCHDOWN!
And as Harrison's making the return, I jump up and yell "TO THE HOUSE, BABY!"
Immediately echoed by a toddler doing the exact same thing, war cry and all. I was proud to be his dad.
Oh, and today I came to the office (I'm just about to leave). As I walked in thought the front entrance, I saw the buggies from the day-care center come around that they use to take the toddlers for rides. With David's class in the seats. I was recognized, and greeted with a "Hi, David's daddy!" from several of the kids. It was a Very Cool Moment.
Trading TiVo
I read a news blurb today that TLC is dropping Paige Davis as Trading Spaces host, and moving to a "hostless" format. Well, call me cynical, but I think it's going to result in a change of my own - dropping the show from my TiVo's Season Pass list.
It's not that I'm a huge fan of hers (she can be way too perky and annoying at times), but I think the show needs a narrator/host to guide it along, and she was pretty good at it. But the show itself has changed a lot in the last season or so, and mainly for the worst. Not to mention that most of the recent cast changes haven't done much for me, either.
So I'll keep watching it through the end of Paige's run (according to the announcement, her last show will air in March), and then see for a couple of weeks what the new version looks like before I drop it. But I'm expecting that it's gone.
See? I can talk about the inane with the best of 'em!
It's not that I'm a huge fan of hers (she can be way too perky and annoying at times), but I think the show needs a narrator/host to guide it along, and she was pretty good at it. But the show itself has changed a lot in the last season or so, and mainly for the worst. Not to mention that most of the recent cast changes haven't done much for me, either.
So I'll keep watching it through the end of Paige's run (according to the announcement, her last show will air in March), and then see for a couple of weeks what the new version looks like before I drop it. But I'm expecting that it's gone.
See? I can talk about the inane with the best of 'em!
If your Macintosh were truly a person...
Well, today your Mac would be old enough to drink. Macintosh was introduced to the world 21 years ago to the day. Happy birthday!
Jackpot!
We wound up hitting the meteorological jackpot - 38" of snow according to the folks at the local WB affiliate. I believe it. I went out once today, just venturing down to the convenience store down by the college at around 3:30 or so. The storm was over, though it was still a little windy. We weren't dug out yet. So I ventured out the front door, since the back door was covered with a snowdrift about as tall as I am. I had to go waist-deep in the snow to get to the sidewalk - or what passed for one. And I slogged a couple of houses down the street before I could see the street - the plows had put around 6' or so of snow up on either side of the main street in front. I walked right down the middle of the near-deserted road, which was in decent shape itself, and then got the newspaper I had went out for in the first place (I'd called ahead to make sure the trip would pan out).
The supermarket nearby never bothered opening at all today, and I think the entire city pretty much was paralyzed. Except for the pizza place across the street. They were open on-schedule and the delivery driver was there.
Other than that, it was just a matter of playing with David all day and doing some housekeeping, while waiting for the football game. Strange things can always happen, but as of right now I'm expecting to see Philly just get stomped.
Tomorrow I'll probably venture to the office for a little while in the morning. I don't expect to be very busy, but I have some things to do that I had to leave behind when I picked up David Friday night.
The supermarket nearby never bothered opening at all today, and I think the entire city pretty much was paralyzed. Except for the pizza place across the street. They were open on-schedule and the delivery driver was there.
Other than that, it was just a matter of playing with David all day and doing some housekeeping, while waiting for the football game. Strange things can always happen, but as of right now I'm expecting to see Philly just get stomped.
Tomorrow I'll probably venture to the office for a little while in the morning. I don't expect to be very busy, but I have some things to do that I had to leave behind when I picked up David Friday night.
Saturday, January 22, 2005
Well, the weather outside is frightful...
And we're waiting for the power to go out for good. Since I have UPS devices at every link between me and my DSL line, if the CO is up I stay up anyways (for a while, at least). So I thought I'd write a little update before bed.
Today was busy, one might say. Jane left early to go get prettified and mail some stuff, then we headed out together for some pre-storm activities. First, we took David to the bank to make a deposit (he'd accumulated $77 in cash and change - not bad!), which he took very seriously. He took the task of choosing a lollipop even more seriously, though (he picked the orange one). Then, we headed to the mall to go see Dora the Explorer, who was making an appearance. You'd have though she was a rock star, from the size of the crowd, to the lines, to her being about a half-hour late, and to her being kinda disappointing in person. No real costume, just a twenty-something girl with a vaguely Dora-ish hairdo in an outfit of approximately similar design and color to Dora's cartoon outfit. We were expecting more of a Disney-type suit. We blew the whole thing off when we saw how long the line was, but David did see her before we went and met our friends for lunch. He wasn't impressed.
After we went back home and David hit the sack for a (nearly four-hour!) nap, I went out one last time as the snow started falling - to go to the library and pick up more milk and orange juice. You'd think that it was Blizzard of '78 time all over again from the crowds at the supermarket. It actually took me several minutes to find a parking space.
Folks, relax! The streets will be clear by afternoon tomorrow, honest!
Anyhow, after hunkering down for the rest of the day we did some housecleaning, relaxed, ate leftovers for supper, and generally did little until just before David's bedtime. Then we took on a new project (he helped) - moving pretty much all the toys over to our second living room. The train table was already in there, along with a bookcase, so we moved everything else in there, too. That will hopefully let us get some more control over the mess elsewhere - and we don't really use that room at all, anyway. After we cleared out the main living room, I let Roomba have at it for the first time in a couple of weeks. It looked clean, but I emptied enough junk out of the bin to prove otherwise. Yecch.
So tomorrow will probably be a "trudge down to the store in my boots for the paper" sort of day. After which we'll just sit around the house all day and watch a lot of football. My kind of Sunday.
Today was busy, one might say. Jane left early to go get prettified and mail some stuff, then we headed out together for some pre-storm activities. First, we took David to the bank to make a deposit (he'd accumulated $77 in cash and change - not bad!), which he took very seriously. He took the task of choosing a lollipop even more seriously, though (he picked the orange one). Then, we headed to the mall to go see Dora the Explorer, who was making an appearance. You'd have though she was a rock star, from the size of the crowd, to the lines, to her being about a half-hour late, and to her being kinda disappointing in person. No real costume, just a twenty-something girl with a vaguely Dora-ish hairdo in an outfit of approximately similar design and color to Dora's cartoon outfit. We were expecting more of a Disney-type suit. We blew the whole thing off when we saw how long the line was, but David did see her before we went and met our friends for lunch. He wasn't impressed.
After we went back home and David hit the sack for a (nearly four-hour!) nap, I went out one last time as the snow started falling - to go to the library and pick up more milk and orange juice. You'd think that it was Blizzard of '78 time all over again from the crowds at the supermarket. It actually took me several minutes to find a parking space.
Folks, relax! The streets will be clear by afternoon tomorrow, honest!
Anyhow, after hunkering down for the rest of the day we did some housecleaning, relaxed, ate leftovers for supper, and generally did little until just before David's bedtime. Then we took on a new project (he helped) - moving pretty much all the toys over to our second living room. The train table was already in there, along with a bookcase, so we moved everything else in there, too. That will hopefully let us get some more control over the mess elsewhere - and we don't really use that room at all, anyway. After we cleared out the main living room, I let Roomba have at it for the first time in a couple of weeks. It looked clean, but I emptied enough junk out of the bin to prove otherwise. Yecch.
So tomorrow will probably be a "trudge down to the store in my boots for the paper" sort of day. After which we'll just sit around the house all day and watch a lot of football. My kind of Sunday.
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