The next netbook

I'm still using an Eee 901 I bought last year, upgraded with a 16GB SSD and 2GB of RAM.  It is running Windows 7 Professional and does a perfectly adequate job for me when I need cheap, light, and long-lasting.  I didn't replace it this year for a few reasons - first, I'm watching the company expenses as carefully as I can, but more importantly there's nothing really new or worthy this year in the netbook category.  Except that everyone got into it.

2010 will change that some with the nVidia Ion platform and Intel's Pine Trail Atom.  Now, performance is just on the edge of low-end laptops (enough for HD video) and battery life is 20+ percent better.  It's viable to get 10 hours of life from a 6-cell battery.  The 9" form factor I have in my 901 turned out to be kind of a dead-end (as did the 7" before) - what's making the platform now are the 10" and 12" screens.  They allow space for keyboards that are much more usable (the letter keys are within a couple percent of full-size and the other keys are a little shrunken to make up for it - 12" models usually have a real keyboard).  The only other dead-end in most models was the use of SSD - I for one will miss that a lot since it made them more rugged.

The model I consider next year will have a 1366x768 screen (the one I have now is 1024x600), likely a 160 or 250GB hard drive, 1GB of RAM standard, and it'll probably include Windows 7 Starter.  Not bad for a netbook.  Double the RAM and upgrade to Windows 7 Pro, and we're looking at a real laptop for under $400 that'll run for a full work day and then some on batteries.

And you wonder why Apple's pretty much the only PC maker making big profits.  All that margin the other companies used to have vanished in the netbook frenzy.  Which, by the way, is also why Apple doesn't play in that segment.

Latest iPhone nonsense

There's a post today on TUAW that breathlessly speculates that Apple's WWDC has booked Moscone from 6/28 through 7/2 (likely - they always book dates anonymously until it's actually announcement time) because that way they can announce an iPhone for Verizon and/or other US carriers (not likely).

Let me repeat myself one more time: Until the move to 4G (which may begin this coming year), Apple is highly unlikely to ever produce a version of the iPhone for CDMA carriers.  And by "highly unlikely" I mean "no chance in hell".  Now, let me remind you all as to why:

- The GSM 3G standard is what is used in virtually all of the world
- CDMA is entering its final run, 4G will replace it
- CDMA data networks cannot handle simultaneous voice and data
- All Apple gets from Verizon or Sprint is a small portion of their market, max
- Right now Apple makes one iPhone (yes, they still produce the older 3G as the entry model, and yes they make one without wifi for China - but it's still the same base phone and the chipsets are GSM-only), not two

In essence, Apple makes an iPhone for almost all of world + dog, excepting two US carriers and part of South Korea.  And they have the largest US GSM carrier in the fold.  The two US carriers they don't support are migrating to newer 4G technologies over the next year, and the largest CDMA carrier (Verizon) is migrating to LTE for 4G - same as AT&T.  CDMA is a dead end.  Why support it now?

Not that folks wouldn't buy a Verizon iPhone, even with the limitations that Verizon's network put on it.  They would.  But the reason I say "no way" is because Apple just is too smart to throw the engineering resources at a product with a very limited shelf life when they can get a lot better return by being on top of 4G.

And that day - Verizon'll be first in line, I bet.

And the winner is...

I did a little household survey to figure out which of the non-computer gadgets is the house favorite.  I polled all the residents and spent about a minute tabulating the data (I voted along with my wife and child - the cat declined to comment and asked to be taken off our polling list).  Here are the top 3, in traditional pageant format:

Second Runner-Up: Roomba.  We have to at least pick stuff off the floor before pushing the button, but it saves us vacuuming runs when we use it.  A good thing.

First Runner-Up: iPhone.  We all have them (David's got an old one with the chip removed that he plays games on instead of me buying him an iPod Touch).  It redefined what the phone could do.  But AT&T sucks just enough, and other cell phones are usable enough, that it's not our über gadget.

And the winner: TiVo (Series 3).  We've been loyal TiVo owners for almost 8 years now, with 5 years on the original Series 2 and now 3 years on the Series 3.  It looks like the hard drive on it is starting to get flakey, and we're trying desperately to decide if we want to fix this soon (and put in a bigger one while we're at it) or hold out a couple more months in the hope that there will finally be a Series 4 shipping.

TiVo's become so integral to the TV experience since we started using it that the risk of having it out of service is painful to everyone here!  That's why it won.  But TiVo has a long way to go just to catch up to modern TV and cable systems.  What they need badly (and this is why we're hoping for a Series 4 soon):

- Tru2Way support (so we can finally patch in to On Demand and PPV)
- SDV support to handle the newer cable systems without an adapter
- Better networking and the ability to transmit from box to box in real time.  The way Verizon's DVR does it (multi-room viewing)
- Bring the UI into the HD era.
- More native storage.  No reason to have anything less than a 1TB drive anymore.
- One or two more tuners on-board.  Right now you get two.  Or add one tuner and devote it to live TV so you can record two shows while viewing one other live.

And please, whatever you do, do it soon!  We only have one TV, and no cable box other than our TiVo - I don't want ours to die and then be forced back to the dark ages!

Still not seeing it (a Verizon iPhone, that is)

First of all, if there was a Verizon iPhone on the horizon, would Verizon be trying so hard to piss off Apple with their Android push?  I think not.

Second, Verizon likes to re-brand everything.  Apple has established that they don't play that game.  Verizon's never caved on that point for any handset maker to date.

Third, Verizon and AT&T have roughly equal US market shares.  Apple sells a huge amount of iPhones here, but they also play in the (overwhelmingly UTMS) global market.  Why devote resources to one carrier?

Fourth, UTMS 3G networks allow simultaneous voice/data.  CDMA/EVDO does not.  iPhone uses that as a major selling point.  Why take a capability away from the iPhone on purpose?

Finally - CDMA is on the way out and it's a niche anyway on a global scale.  LTE is replacing CDMA at Verizon, beginning next year.  Also, it's what AT&T is switching to, along with most global cell networks.  CDMA iPhone?  Nope.  LTE iPhone?  Absolutely.  Maybe in 2010?  Outside possibility, but definitely by 2011.

And at that point, maybe Verizon will start selling it.  Which is consistent with what I've been saying for about a year and a half now (ever since the original iPhone 3G came out) and for some reasons the "expert analysts" keep reading tea leaves they don't understand to say otherwise.

Is there a possibility Apple might introduce a device with ties to Verizon before that?  Anything is possible, but I think the idea that the "legendary Apple iMediaTablet" or something like it would be a CDMA device here and a UTMS device elsewhere is unlikely.

Why Verizon's Droid phone has already lost the war

Sure, Verizon has the best 3G coverage nationwide.  They're about 2 years ahead of AT&T in deployment, and they have virtually all of the nation blanketed with signal, especially since the Alltel integration.  In that regard, the Verizon network has all sorts of advantages.  But there's catches to it, as well:

• Verizon's EVDO 3G doesn't handle voice and data simultaneously.  Check the web, your phone probably goes to voicemail - or the call interrupts your web session for the duration.  All EVDO phones have worked this way as long as I've seen them (AT&T's counter-ads even point this out).

• CDMA/EVDO is the technology dead-end.  It's going to vanish with the deployment of 4G (LTE) and in fact the LTE transition that will start next year will likely neutralize any advantage either carrier has at this point - AT&T and Verizon are both deploying it.  Advantage - AT&T, since LTE is basically an extension of the GSM standards used everywhere in the world but on Sprint and Verizon's networks.

• AT&T has the baggage of only being about 2 years old.  Really.  The current AT&T was born from the purchase of Cingular Wireless by the then much smaller AT&T.  They spent a lot of the last couple of years trying to integrate the various networks they'd picked up - and that's part of why 3G deployment's only begun to accelerate over the last year.  They still don't have the data footprint that Verizon has, but that's going to grow fast.  I'm not an AT&T fanboi but the gap will continue to shrink fast.

• The current (app-running) incarnation of the iPhone is only 16 months old right now.  But that's a huge first-mover advantage for Apple - they've sold over 20 million of these puppies world-wide.  And they're a moving target.  Sure, some features have been improved upon by the competition, but Apple keeps coming out and moving the goal line - adding upon the numbers lead as they do so.

Is Verizon going to sell plenty of Droids?  Sure.  It's the best smartphone (based on specs) they've had yet.  It'll be the default purchase instead of the bag-of-hurt Windows Mobile phones.  Android, too, is a viable phone OS - it's pretty much going to kill off Windows Mobile and probably Symbian, though, as well as all the other "Linux for phone OS" devices out there.  That's good for the industry.  Not going to touch iPhone or Blackberry.

The major dilemma for Android as an OS is the same one RIM has with Blackberries.  Right now, you can develop an application for iPhone, compile it, and run it on any device running Mac OS X Touch.  iPhones 1-3GS, iPod Touch, and devices to be announced later.  It's one platform, one binary.  On the other hand, virtually every Blackberry is a unique device, requiring a unique build of software.  From what I've seen so far, Android looks like the latter, not the former.  That's not going to help.

For a learning experience, Apple didn't come out and advertise what the other phones didn't do.  They showed us what the iPhone could do, and how easy it all was.  And they have steadily added the things that power phone users found lacking - and made it easy for most developers to get their wares in front of an audience.  From what Verizon's indicating, they've focused on making an iPhone Plus, rather than a new way of using a mobile phone.  Apple did it the other way around.  Which is why they won.

Closer to a-Kindling...

Amazon cut the price of the Kindle 2 by $40 today, and introduced a GSM-based version (on AT&T's network) that will still cost $20 less than it did yesterday (new prices are $259 and $279, respectively - down from $299). I'm getting closer to Want status.

The magic point for me will be when it drops below $200 and gets native PDF support. Then I'll use it as a repository for all my tech manuals that I have in PDF format, and I'll read an occasional mass-market book on it as well.

iDon't get the hype

Apple may or may not at some point come out with a tablet computer. So what? Maybe Steve Jobs is playing chess while I'm playing checkers, but I just can't see virtually any tablet device that would be more than a niche device. Sure, tablets are useful in some industrial and commercial settings, but that's never been Apple's game. Apple plays consumer ball nowadays - along with their traditional high-end and creative pro markets. Here's the easiest questions to ask in order to figure out if a tablet computer has a place in the consumer market or not:

• What's faster, typing or writing (natural language, not some weird variation like Palm's old Graffiti input)?
• What's faster, easier, and more discreet to do in public, typing or speaking?
• Assuming a tablet computer could have easy, fast input and could run acceptably long on a charge, where do you stow it when it's not in use?
• Do you cry when a tablet computer falls down and breaks? Or do you just curse a couple of times and then go buy a replacement?
• Can it be cheap and rugged enough to not worry about?

Of course, Apple already knows how to make a reasonably rugged device that has good battery life, runs a desktop OS, and can perform the most needed functions of most desktop computers. In fact, it's called the iPhone. And it sells a hundred for every likely iTablet sale. Now, I could be completely full of nonsense here, but I just don't see a way for Apple to build a "tablet" computer that can fit my criteria above and still be cheap enough to sell to the mass market.

What I do foresee (maybe even as early as tomorrow) is a scaled-down version of the MacBook that can be sold at a $700 or so price point. That's likely to come - Apple won't play in the low-margin netbook space per se, but they'll provide a barebones laptop for people looking to trade up. They will keep driving the cost down on their consumer desktops, too - it's OK, because they make so much cash on iPhones that they can afford to shave the margins a little on the consumer systems. I see the big marketshare push starting soon. The potential isn't there to break Windows, but there's no reason that Apple can't have a happy, profitable 20-25% of the marketplace. It's more do-able now than it has been in years.

But there ain't no iTablet in that picture, and I doubt there will be.

Dear everyone crapping on Apple today

Yes, I know Apple's only supported MMS since the release of the 3.0 software this year. Yes, I also know that MMS has been on many phones since the beginning of the decade when the first crappy camera phones came out. And yes, I know I'm also arguably an Apple fanboi.

But you know what? The last phone I had before my iPhone was a Verizon Treo 700p. It had MMS, and I could send pics when the phone didn't crash instead. The Treo was such a big steaming pile of Fail that I virtually never tried, plus the camera was horrible. The Treo 650 I had before it? Same crap, slower network. I can see a use for MMS, but you know what? I haven't missed it these last two-plus years.

And why not, you ask? Well, last time I checked, the iPhone could take its pictures and use this funky technology called "e-mail" to send them to not only most smartphones (because real phones support e-mail) but these big boxes called desktop computers as well. Go figure. MMS is "nice-to-have" but given that the phone has such a robust e-mail client it's not exactly a "must-have" now, is it?

Now the fact that every other smartphone out there is allowed to tether but AT&T won't let iPhone users do it? That's pure unadulterated Suck on the part of AT&T. Apple provided it, though - it's just that the piss-poor management at AT&T are afraid that their network will suddenly be overwhelmed by people connecting via their computers.

Weasels. Fix your damned network and stop worrying about an apocalypse.

Snow Leopard - Quick Hits

I got it and installed while I was on vacation last week (work never rests). Here's a few quick tidbits:

• Installation is faster than traditional OS installs. A lot of it is preloaded to HD during the initial phase - unlike previous versions of OS X the Snow Leopard installer is meant to run from your prior OS and do the preload.

• Total installation time - about 45 minutes. That included the preload phase.

• Boot time is faster, probably about 20-25% subjectively.

• Safari is fast in 64-bit mode. Unfortunately, right now the Safari AdBlock plugin doesn't work in 64-bit, only 32-bit. That slows it down a little and ditches some of the crashproofing that you get from the 64-bit version.

• Time Machine is way faster to a Time Capsule, and the status messages are more informative.

• Useful wake-from-sleep is quicker. Re-acquiring Airport signal is faster as well.

• Launch times on most applications are faster.

• I already know about this, but Kerio Mail Server does not work properly with iCal's CalDAV support. It's not Kerio's fault, but they expect to deal with it themselves in a minor update due in the next few days.

• Cisco VPN support could come in handy. Be nice to see CheckPoint added down the road as well (hint).

End of the line

Cape May is a desolate place. And I say that without a trace of malice - I actually like it here. It's desolate in the sense that it's the end of the line, literally. Except for our rental house (a 1980's "Italianate" aka "Miami Vice" beast) the entire 2.5 miles of beachfront consists of old Victorian and/or Shingle homes that are all looking a little run down from the weather. There's some slightly more modern/generic condo complexes, and the hotels all date back to the 1950s, when Cape May was first redeveloped into a tourist town. Hotels are concrete with pools in front, overlooking the beach.

The downtown has a nice pedestrian mall area, with a carefully restored 5&10 store as a centerpiece. There are horse carriages. Along with about a half-dozen fudge/taffy/sweet stores. And the t-shirt emporiums. Hermit crabs are a popular sale item for the kiddies.

But even with all that niceness, Cape May still has that End City feel to it. There is one small supermarket. Unless you are in the military (and therefore eligible to use the Coast Guard PX), you have to leave and drive about 5-10 miles to pretty much get any supplies at a reasonable price. The beaches are enormous and usually packed - it's as far south as you can get and still be in the North. Next stop Delaware. The beaches are well-maintained (groomed nightly) but the rest of the town is looking a little battered. Houses a couple of blocks back from the beach are basically just Levittown-style for the most part.

There are standouts here. Congress Hall is an absolutely spectacular restoration of a turn-of-the-century hotel complex. It's immaculate, and you feel like you should dress up when you step into the lobby. The nightly flag ceremony at Sunset Beach is hokey, but wonderful all the same. There's a terrific bird sanctuary. Cape May County Zoo is a great destination, though it's actually 10 miles back up the road and out of Cape May proper.

But mainly the town is a retreat from the rest of the world - a place where there is no Starbucks (though the lines for coffee are impressive at the Wawa near the marinas), no big-time chain stores outside a small CVS and an Acme, and not much to do other than walk the pedestrian mall, hang out on the promenade or go to the arcades, and sit on the nearly endless beach.

Which is why I've gone there almost every year for the last decade-plus, and despite the traffic getting there will probably continue to do it for years to come. Nothing can be good.