Why Verizon's Droid phone has already lost the war

Sure, Verizon has the best 3G coverage nationwide.  They're about 2 years ahead of AT&T in deployment, and they have virtually all of the nation blanketed with signal, especially since the Alltel integration.  In that regard, the Verizon network has all sorts of advantages.  But there's catches to it, as well:

• Verizon's EVDO 3G doesn't handle voice and data simultaneously.  Check the web, your phone probably goes to voicemail - or the call interrupts your web session for the duration.  All EVDO phones have worked this way as long as I've seen them (AT&T's counter-ads even point this out).

• CDMA/EVDO is the technology dead-end.  It's going to vanish with the deployment of 4G (LTE) and in fact the LTE transition that will start next year will likely neutralize any advantage either carrier has at this point - AT&T and Verizon are both deploying it.  Advantage - AT&T, since LTE is basically an extension of the GSM standards used everywhere in the world but on Sprint and Verizon's networks.

• AT&T has the baggage of only being about 2 years old.  Really.  The current AT&T was born from the purchase of Cingular Wireless by the then much smaller AT&T.  They spent a lot of the last couple of years trying to integrate the various networks they'd picked up - and that's part of why 3G deployment's only begun to accelerate over the last year.  They still don't have the data footprint that Verizon has, but that's going to grow fast.  I'm not an AT&T fanboi but the gap will continue to shrink fast.

• The current (app-running) incarnation of the iPhone is only 16 months old right now.  But that's a huge first-mover advantage for Apple - they've sold over 20 million of these puppies world-wide.  And they're a moving target.  Sure, some features have been improved upon by the competition, but Apple keeps coming out and moving the goal line - adding upon the numbers lead as they do so.

Is Verizon going to sell plenty of Droids?  Sure.  It's the best smartphone (based on specs) they've had yet.  It'll be the default purchase instead of the bag-of-hurt Windows Mobile phones.  Android, too, is a viable phone OS - it's pretty much going to kill off Windows Mobile and probably Symbian, though, as well as all the other "Linux for phone OS" devices out there.  That's good for the industry.  Not going to touch iPhone or Blackberry.

The major dilemma for Android as an OS is the same one RIM has with Blackberries.  Right now, you can develop an application for iPhone, compile it, and run it on any device running Mac OS X Touch.  iPhones 1-3GS, iPod Touch, and devices to be announced later.  It's one platform, one binary.  On the other hand, virtually every Blackberry is a unique device, requiring a unique build of software.  From what I've seen so far, Android looks like the latter, not the former.  That's not going to help.

For a learning experience, Apple didn't come out and advertise what the other phones didn't do.  They showed us what the iPhone could do, and how easy it all was.  And they have steadily added the things that power phone users found lacking - and made it easy for most developers to get their wares in front of an audience.  From what Verizon's indicating, they've focused on making an iPhone Plus, rather than a new way of using a mobile phone.  Apple did it the other way around.  Which is why they won.

Closer to a-Kindling...

Amazon cut the price of the Kindle 2 by $40 today, and introduced a GSM-based version (on AT&T's network) that will still cost $20 less than it did yesterday (new prices are $259 and $279, respectively - down from $299). I'm getting closer to Want status.

The magic point for me will be when it drops below $200 and gets native PDF support. Then I'll use it as a repository for all my tech manuals that I have in PDF format, and I'll read an occasional mass-market book on it as well.

iDon't get the hype

Apple may or may not at some point come out with a tablet computer. So what? Maybe Steve Jobs is playing chess while I'm playing checkers, but I just can't see virtually any tablet device that would be more than a niche device. Sure, tablets are useful in some industrial and commercial settings, but that's never been Apple's game. Apple plays consumer ball nowadays - along with their traditional high-end and creative pro markets. Here's the easiest questions to ask in order to figure out if a tablet computer has a place in the consumer market or not:

• What's faster, typing or writing (natural language, not some weird variation like Palm's old Graffiti input)?
• What's faster, easier, and more discreet to do in public, typing or speaking?
• Assuming a tablet computer could have easy, fast input and could run acceptably long on a charge, where do you stow it when it's not in use?
• Do you cry when a tablet computer falls down and breaks? Or do you just curse a couple of times and then go buy a replacement?
• Can it be cheap and rugged enough to not worry about?

Of course, Apple already knows how to make a reasonably rugged device that has good battery life, runs a desktop OS, and can perform the most needed functions of most desktop computers. In fact, it's called the iPhone. And it sells a hundred for every likely iTablet sale. Now, I could be completely full of nonsense here, but I just don't see a way for Apple to build a "tablet" computer that can fit my criteria above and still be cheap enough to sell to the mass market.

What I do foresee (maybe even as early as tomorrow) is a scaled-down version of the MacBook that can be sold at a $700 or so price point. That's likely to come - Apple won't play in the low-margin netbook space per se, but they'll provide a barebones laptop for people looking to trade up. They will keep driving the cost down on their consumer desktops, too - it's OK, because they make so much cash on iPhones that they can afford to shave the margins a little on the consumer systems. I see the big marketshare push starting soon. The potential isn't there to break Windows, but there's no reason that Apple can't have a happy, profitable 20-25% of the marketplace. It's more do-able now than it has been in years.

But there ain't no iTablet in that picture, and I doubt there will be.

Dear everyone crapping on Apple today

Yes, I know Apple's only supported MMS since the release of the 3.0 software this year. Yes, I also know that MMS has been on many phones since the beginning of the decade when the first crappy camera phones came out. And yes, I know I'm also arguably an Apple fanboi.

But you know what? The last phone I had before my iPhone was a Verizon Treo 700p. It had MMS, and I could send pics when the phone didn't crash instead. The Treo was such a big steaming pile of Fail that I virtually never tried, plus the camera was horrible. The Treo 650 I had before it? Same crap, slower network. I can see a use for MMS, but you know what? I haven't missed it these last two-plus years.

And why not, you ask? Well, last time I checked, the iPhone could take its pictures and use this funky technology called "e-mail" to send them to not only most smartphones (because real phones support e-mail) but these big boxes called desktop computers as well. Go figure. MMS is "nice-to-have" but given that the phone has such a robust e-mail client it's not exactly a "must-have" now, is it?

Now the fact that every other smartphone out there is allowed to tether but AT&T won't let iPhone users do it? That's pure unadulterated Suck on the part of AT&T. Apple provided it, though - it's just that the piss-poor management at AT&T are afraid that their network will suddenly be overwhelmed by people connecting via their computers.

Weasels. Fix your damned network and stop worrying about an apocalypse.

Snow Leopard - Quick Hits

I got it and installed while I was on vacation last week (work never rests). Here's a few quick tidbits:

• Installation is faster than traditional OS installs. A lot of it is preloaded to HD during the initial phase - unlike previous versions of OS X the Snow Leopard installer is meant to run from your prior OS and do the preload.

• Total installation time - about 45 minutes. That included the preload phase.

• Boot time is faster, probably about 20-25% subjectively.

• Safari is fast in 64-bit mode. Unfortunately, right now the Safari AdBlock plugin doesn't work in 64-bit, only 32-bit. That slows it down a little and ditches some of the crashproofing that you get from the 64-bit version.

• Time Machine is way faster to a Time Capsule, and the status messages are more informative.

• Useful wake-from-sleep is quicker. Re-acquiring Airport signal is faster as well.

• Launch times on most applications are faster.

• I already know about this, but Kerio Mail Server does not work properly with iCal's CalDAV support. It's not Kerio's fault, but they expect to deal with it themselves in a minor update due in the next few days.

• Cisco VPN support could come in handy. Be nice to see CheckPoint added down the road as well (hint).

End of the line

Cape May is a desolate place. And I say that without a trace of malice - I actually like it here. It's desolate in the sense that it's the end of the line, literally. Except for our rental house (a 1980's "Italianate" aka "Miami Vice" beast) the entire 2.5 miles of beachfront consists of old Victorian and/or Shingle homes that are all looking a little run down from the weather. There's some slightly more modern/generic condo complexes, and the hotels all date back to the 1950s, when Cape May was first redeveloped into a tourist town. Hotels are concrete with pools in front, overlooking the beach.

The downtown has a nice pedestrian mall area, with a carefully restored 5&10 store as a centerpiece. There are horse carriages. Along with about a half-dozen fudge/taffy/sweet stores. And the t-shirt emporiums. Hermit crabs are a popular sale item for the kiddies.

But even with all that niceness, Cape May still has that End City feel to it. There is one small supermarket. Unless you are in the military (and therefore eligible to use the Coast Guard PX), you have to leave and drive about 5-10 miles to pretty much get any supplies at a reasonable price. The beaches are enormous and usually packed - it's as far south as you can get and still be in the North. Next stop Delaware. The beaches are well-maintained (groomed nightly) but the rest of the town is looking a little battered. Houses a couple of blocks back from the beach are basically just Levittown-style for the most part.

There are standouts here. Congress Hall is an absolutely spectacular restoration of a turn-of-the-century hotel complex. It's immaculate, and you feel like you should dress up when you step into the lobby. The nightly flag ceremony at Sunset Beach is hokey, but wonderful all the same. There's a terrific bird sanctuary. Cape May County Zoo is a great destination, though it's actually 10 miles back up the road and out of Cape May proper.

But mainly the town is a retreat from the rest of the world - a place where there is no Starbucks (though the lines for coffee are impressive at the Wawa near the marinas), no big-time chain stores outside a small CVS and an Acme, and not much to do other than walk the pedestrian mall, hang out on the promenade or go to the arcades, and sit on the nearly endless beach.

Which is why I've gone there almost every year for the last decade-plus, and despite the traffic getting there will probably continue to do it for years to come. Nothing can be good.

Back from the grave

Chrysler announced today that the PT Cruiser has gotten a reprieve and will no longer be discontinued after this model year.

Dumb move, though I understand why they made it. There's nothing else in the Chrysler or Fiat lineup that can realistically replace it this late in the game. But the car itself is a big bucket of meh that hasn't aged well, hasn't gotten any significant updates in years to keep up with the Joneses, and is the prime example of the "retro" style that was all the rage in the beginning of the decade but nowadays only can been seen at rental companies.

I drove one a few months back when my Honda was in the shop - the best thing I could say about it was that it ran. Ergonomics were horrible, the shifter was cutesy in a goofy-assed way, and the visibility was poor, particularly in the back where the oh-so-cute hatch is. The one redeeming quality to me was good headroom (I have the torso of a 6' 6" man - unfortunately for my ability to find clothes that fit I'm only 6' 3").

Please bring or release a better car for 2011. I don't want to see Chrysler fail again. At least GM is starting to make cars that people want.

And that concludes my most prolific blogging month of the year. Yow!

I don't care if Big Papi used roids

I don't care if A-Rod did them, or Barry Bonds, or anyone else, for that matter. A lot of folks were on the juice during the era from the early '90s until about 2003, when MLB finally got serious about testing. Some were on them briefly, some were long-time users, but damn near all of the players used at one point or another. We all knew it, too.

Here's the thing: I don't really care about then. I care about now. Since 2006 there's been a comprehensive testing program with punishment. That's what I care about. Positive tests before 2006? Whatever. Since 2006? Throw the book at 'em. Beforehand the loophole existed - PEDs were not always explicitly banned and so players got them every way they could.

So I don't care if Papi did steroids in 2003. So long as he doesn't use them nowadays, he's cool by me. Even A-Rod - I don't hate him because he did steroids. I hate him because he's a douche.

Hall of Fame? Different story. That's a numbers-driven business and the steroid users have better numbers. I think this is one of the key reasons Jim Rice finally got in this year - he was pretty much the last of the feared pre-steroid sluggers. I think the voters should be mentally adjusting lifetime stats for steroid use and then voting based on that adjustment. Roger Clemens? Probably still in. Mark McGuire and Sammy Sosa? Borderline. Palmiero? No way.

Cup silly season begins...

Domino #1 - Talented underachiever Martin Truex Jr. gets out of the moldering corpse of DEI (Earnhardt-Ganassi) and goes to take over the NAPA rida at Waltrip.

Domino #2 - DeWalt drops #17 sponsorship - a surprise after 10 years. Former series champ and current Daytona champ Matt Kenseth loses his sponsrship.

Domino #3 - Crown Royal moves from the #26 car to the #17, leaves Jamie McMurray out of a ride. Since Roush Fenway has to get down to 4 cars next season (they have 5 now - the #6, #16, #17, #26, and #99) and have the other 4 sponsored, that means the #26 is toast unless they can get a sponsor and move them to Yates Racing (a captive affiliate like Stewart-Haas is to Hendrick).

Domino #4 - Hot rumor as of today is that Reed Sorenson will be pulled from the #43 at Petty and AJ Allmendinger will be moved in. Then the $44 (which was only partially sponsored) will be shut down, leaving RPM with the #9, the #19, and the iconic #43. Good move - Sorenson is a respectable driver but vanilla, and Allmendinger is a real talent (Red Bull would have a race win for Vickers by now if they'd kept AJ in the #82 instead of the useless tool that Scott Speed is). Kasey Kahne brings his cougar fans anywhere he might go, and Elliot Sadler isn't much of a driver but he's a good presence for the sponsors. Kind of like a younger, slightly more talented Mikey Waltrip.

All the rest of the season's drama will be resolved pretty much by the time the Chase kicks off in Loudon a month and a half from now. Will Stewart-Haas get a third car? Will Danica come to NASCAR? Where does Brad Kesolowski go? Has Shrub lost his mojo? Who's going to drive the #1 car now, and is the Bass Pro Shops sponsorship worth driving for the mess that is EGR?

These and other questions answered (eventually) on "As the Sprint Cup Turns (left)..."

If she does run in 2012

All the other candidates will have to do to reduce Sarah Palin to an afterthought is play her farewell address. On TV. Unedited.

Wow, what a profoundly inarticulate moran.