Friday, November 13, 2009

Still not seeing it (a Verizon iPhone, that is)

First of all, if there was a Verizon iPhone on the horizon, would Verizon be trying so hard to piss off Apple with their Android push?  I think not.

Second, Verizon likes to re-brand everything.  Apple has established that they don't play that game.  Verizon's never caved on that point for any handset maker to date.

Third, Verizon and AT&T have roughly equal US market shares.  Apple sells a huge amount of iPhones here, but they also play in the (overwhelmingly UTMS) global market.  Why devote resources to one carrier?

Fourth, UTMS 3G networks allow simultaneous voice/data.  CDMA/EVDO does not.  iPhone uses that as a major selling point.  Why take a capability away from the iPhone on purpose?

Finally - CDMA is on the way out and it's a niche anyway on a global scale.  LTE is replacing CDMA at Verizon, beginning next year.  Also, it's what AT&T is switching to, along with most global cell networks.  CDMA iPhone?  Nope.  LTE iPhone?  Absolutely.  Maybe in 2010?  Outside possibility, but definitely by 2011.

And at that point, maybe Verizon will start selling it.  Which is consistent with what I've been saying for about a year and a half now (ever since the original iPhone 3G came out) and for some reasons the "expert analysts" keep reading tea leaves they don't understand to say otherwise.

Is there a possibility Apple might introduce a device with ties to Verizon before that?  Anything is possible, but I think the idea that the "legendary Apple iMediaTablet" or something like it would be a CDMA device here and a UTMS device elsewhere is unlikely.
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